In fairness, last year’s crop of Award
nominees was pretty uniformly outstanding. La La Land, Manchester by the Sea,
Hell or High Water, Arrival and eventual winner Moonlight all exemplified what
I believe to be the amount of excellence needed to break my personal Top 25 of
the year. Hacksaw Ridge, Fences, and Hidden Figures less so but at least I can
see where the Academy was coming from. Lion…well no, just no.
This year I
feel has the opposite problem. The crop this year is pretty uniformly good, not
great. Only Get Out, The Shape of Water and Phantom Thread really do it for me.
Lady Bird, Dunkirk, Call Me By Your Name and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing,
Missouri fill out that second tier while The Post and Darkest Hour occupy my
mind as the least deserving of the bunch (what no room for Florida Project,
Mudbound, Mother!, Stronger or f**king I, Tonya in the Best Pic category?!).
 |
| I haven't been this upset since The Help was nominated! |
Okay I’ve
griped long enough. This year I have once again updated the format so forgive
me if you have to jump around a little if you want to use my predictions for
your Oscar Ballot (hi Kelly!). My personal historical accuracy is still in the
mix but now I’m divvying my picks up best on confidence level. So here we go:
Super Confident Predictions
Best
Cinematography
Who Will Win:
Blade Runner 2049
|
Who Should Win:
Roger Deakins but we really should give Rachel Morrison another look
|
Possible Spoiler:
None
|
Historical Accuracy:
100%
|
Explanation:
Literally every year Roger Deakins has been nominated for this award
he’s been beaten by some pretty stiff competition (with the exception of ’95,
who the hell voted for Legends of the Fall). This year however will almost
certainly be the year the 13-time nominee takes home the Oscar. I mean did
you see Blade Runner 2049…well judging by the box office you didn’t but
still…he’s going to win, you can bring that prediction to the bank.
|
|||
Best
Animated Feature
Who Will Win:
Coco
|
Who Should Win:
Psshh Coco
|
Possible Spoiler:
None
|
Historical Accuracy:
40%
|
Explanation: I mean, is this one really up for debate? The only
possible spoiler would be Loving Vincent which was much better in concept
than it ended up being in execution. Nope, it’s Coco.
|
|||
Best Actor
Who Will Win:
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
|
Who Should Win:
Jake Gylenhaal – Stronger (yes I know it wasn’t nominated!)
|
Possible Spoiler:
Hahahahaha!
|
Historical Accuracy:
100%
|
Explanation: Ugh, I’m upset this one is pretty much in the bag. Don’t
get me wrong Gary Oldman did a wondrous job as Winston Churchill but the film
itself is about as interesting as a damp cigar left in an ashtray. As far as
the nominees are concerned Daniel Day-Lewis is crazy good in Phantom Thread
but for the love of God, did no one even notice Jake Gyllenhaal’s performance
in Stronger? No one?
|
|||
Best
Director
Who Will Win:
Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape of Water
|
Who Should Win:
Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread
|
Possible Spoiler:
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
|
Historical Accuracy:
100%
|
Explanation: Oscar night is going to be a big night for The Shape of
Water and an especially big night for its director Guillermo Del Toro. While
I’m not as confident the fishy love story is going to win top prize, I am
more confident Del Toro’s technical wizardry is going to get the kudos it
deserves. Honestly his only real threat is Christopher Nolan who has been
ignored by the Academy long enough to get some fervent industry fans chomping
at the bit.
|
|||
Best Adapted
Screenplay
Who Will Win:
James Ivory – Call Me By Your Name
|
Who Should Win:
James Mangold, Scott Frank & Michael Green - Logan
|
Possible Spoiler:
Aaron Sorkin – Molly’s Game
|
Historical Accuracy:
80%
|
Explanation: Call Me By Your Name has some crazy loyal fans in the
film industry. And while I’m sure it’s not going to win the top prize, I do
think it will win the usual consolation prize i.e. the Best Screenplay award.
Longtime scribe and sometime director James Ivory really only has Aaron
Sorkin to worry about but if you ask me, James Mangold and crew deserve some
recognition for turning an aged X-Men staple into a bona fide western hero.
|
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Best Actress
Who Will Win:
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
|
Who Should Win:
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
|
Possible Spoiler:
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
|
Historical Accuracy:
100%
|
Explanation: As far as quality is concerned, every actress nominated
deserves the amount of praise and attention they’ve been given. This year was
especially strong for female roles. But if I were to base my prediction
solely on previous award season wins and buzz, one clear winner emerges.
Frances McDormand will likely take the top prize with Saoirse Ronan being the
only real competition she has. Since Ronan was in a comedy however, she’s
severely handicapped. Also you got to admit Hailee Steinfeld did the Lady
Bird archetype better in last year’s Edge of Seventeen.
|
|||
Best
Supporting Actress
Who Will Win:
Allison Janney – I, Tonya
|
Who Should Win:
Allison Janney – I, Tonya
|
Possible Spoiler:
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
|
Historical Accuracy:
80%
|
Explanation: This category is essentially a two woman race between
two actresses both playing battleaxe mothers. But while Laurie Metcalf
brought quite a bit more of humanity to her role, Janney proved she was
willing to bring the fireworks as the completely rotten LaVona Golden, mother
of the infamous Tonya Harding.
|
|||
Best Makeup
and Hairstyling
Who Will Win:
Darkest Hour
|
Who Should Win:
Literally anyone else
|
Possible Spoiler:
Possibly None
|
Historical Accuracy:
20%
|
Explanation: Darkest Hour looks like the only shoe-in in this category but who knows I've been wrong before. Just ask me about Academy Award winner Suicide Squad.
|
|||
 |
| Ugh, f**k you Suicide Squad! |
The Not Too Sures
Best
Animated Short
Who Will Win:
LOU
|
Who Should Win:
Olaf’s Frozen Ad…just kidding! LOU
|
Possible Spoiler:
Dear Basketball
|
Historical Accuracy:
60%
|
Explanation: Out of all the shorts in this category, LOU is the most
well known (it came before Cars 3), and arguably feels the safest and
broadest. Plus with a big company like Pixar behind it, it seems very
unlikely that anything will steal its thunder. So why is this not higher on
the for-sure list? Well Dear Basketball, a short based on Kobe Bryant’s
retirement letter may appeal based on its timeliness. Plus there are probably
a lot of Lakers fans in the Academy voting pool. Just saying.
|
|||
Best Costume
Design
Who Will Win:
Phantom Thread
|
Who Should Win:
Phantom Thread
|
Possible Spoiler:
The Shape of Water
|
Historical Accuracy:
40%
|
Explanation: With so much emphasis and importance put on clothing in
Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest deep dive into obsession, it’d be easy to see
Phantom Thread take this particular prize come Oscar night. That said The
Shape of Water may prove stiff competition. Especially if it gets momentum
early on in the night.
|
|||
Best Foreign
Film
Who Will Win:
A Fantastic Woman
|
Who Should Win:
A Fantastic Woman
|
Possible Spoiler:
The Square
|
Historical Accuracy:
80%
|
Explanation: While the Academy tends to veer towards
middle-of-the-road fair in every other category, interesting, experimental
and radically humane films get a little more attention in the Best Foreign
Language category. Thus A Fantastic Woman, the Chilean story of a trans-woman
who grieves for the death of her boyfriend, may just be the ticket this time
around. But don’t count out The Square the radical Palme d’Or winner that had
audiences uncomfortable all the way through.
|
|||
Best
Original Song
Who Will Win:
Remember Me – Coco
|
Who Should Win:
Remember Me - Coco
|
Possible Spoiler:
This is Me – The Greatest Showman
|
Historical Accuracy:
60%
|
Explanation: Coco’s “Remember Me” is the odds on favorite this time
around but it was also the odds on favorite at the Golden Globes. And we all
know what ended up happening there. Oh you don’t? I keep forgetting other
people have lives – “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman won. Yeah, watch
out for that.
|
|||
Best Picture
Who Will Win:
The Shape of Water
|
Who Should Win:
Get Out
|
Possible Spoiler:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
|
Historical Accuracy:
40%
|
Explanation: Oof, this category is actually pretty hard to gage. On
the one hand The Shape of Water is the odds on favorite but on the other
hand, Three Billboards and Lady Bird pose enough of a threat to have Academy
watchers nervous. Add to that the fervent fans of Call Me By Your Name and
Get Out and you got enough of a spoiler factor for a fairly competitive race.
I’m going to stick with The Shape of Water though partially based on Guillermo Del Toro's recent Directors Guild win.
|
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Best
Supporting Actor
Who Will Win:
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
|
Who Should Win:
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
|
Possible Spoiler:
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
|
Historical Accuracy:
80%
|
Explanation: Again, here’s an acting category that is essentially a
two-way race. This time it’s between an angry, ineffectual, racist cop played
by Sam Rockwell and a kind but jaded manager of a motel played with humanity
by Willem Dafoe. Rockwell’s got momentum on his side for now but we still
have the Screen Actors Guild Awards to contend with.
|
|||
Best
Documentary
Who Will Win:
Faces Places
|
Who Should Win:
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
|
Possible Spoiler:
Icarus
|
Historical Accuracy:
40%
|
Explanation: Again, this category comes down to which movie is most
widely known and seen. Based on that factor alone Face Places may come away
with the top prize. The film is further helped by the fact that it’s
co-directed by French New Wave icon Agnes Varda. Academy film-o-philes may just
use this opportunity to honor the Nouvelle Vogue in summa.
|
|||
Best Visual
Effects
Who Will Win:
War for the Planet of the Apes
|
Who Should Win:
Blade Runner 2049
|
Possible Spoiler:
Blade Runner 2049
|
Historical Accuracy:
80%
|
Explanation: The robust conversations concerning Andy Serkis acting
as the CGI Caesar the ape for three movies, will likely translate to a
victory of the trilogy in this category. That said, the Apes series has never
won in this category losing out to Interstellar and Hugo before that. History
may repeat itself with the visually stunning Blade Runner 2049 slipping just
past WFTPOTA for award glory.
|
|||
Best
Original Score
Who Will Win:
Alexandre Desplat – The Shape of Water
|
Who Should Win:
Alexandre Desplat
|
Possible Spoiler:
Jonny Greenwood – Phantom Thread
|
Historical Accuracy:
40%
|
Explanation: Headed into award season Hans Zimmer’s experimental
score for Dunkirk was said to be the odds on favorite. Apparently people
briefly forgot who actually votes in these things thus Alexandre Desplat won
by an upset at the Golden Globes. Will history repeat itself and give his
sweet, romantic score the praise it deserves? Probably, but Jonny Greenwood
(previously ineligible for The Master and There Will Be Blood, two excellent scores)
has just enough fans in the industry to maybe pull an upset.
|
|||
Best
Production Design
Who Will Win:
Blade Runner 2049
|
Who Should Win:
Anything but Darkest Hour
|
Possible Spoiler:
Shape of Water
|
Historical Accuracy:
100%
|
Explanation: The reason why Best Production Design is arguably my
favorite award is because it’s often the most diverse. Here genre films,
adult dramas and period films all collide and duke it out. This year in
Design we have an ambitious, futuristic sci-fi epic (Blade Runner 2049), a
harrowing war drama (Dunkirk), a romantic, retro-chic Gothic horror (The
Shape of Water) and a fantasy fable dipped in the 17th century
French aesthetic tradition (Beauty and the Beast). Also Darkest Hour but f**k
Darkest Hour. This may prove another win for Blade Runner but again if
momentum is on the side of Shape of Water, Best Production Design may just
prove another feather in its cap.
|
|||
Best Editing
Who Will Win:
The Shape of Water
|
Who Should Win:
Baby Driver
|
Possible Spoiler:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
|
Historical Accuracy:
0%
|
Explanation: I want Baby Driver to win this so bad! Yes, yes I’m
aware of the criticism that Academy members often vote for “the most” or
“most showy” instead of what’s “best” but when it comes to showiness Baby Driver
just made it look like so much fun. Ugh, The Shape of Water will probably win
because momentum blah, blah, blah.
|
|||
Best
Original Screenplay
Who Will Win:
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
|
Who Should Win:
Jordan Peele – Get Out
|
Possible Spoiler:
Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
|
Historical Accuracy:
60%
|
Explanation: Ah yes, we’ve come to the Award that has all the
strongest overall movies all housed under one roof. Thus based on my personal
preferences (i.e. without analysis) this category is nearly impossible to
pick. I mean The Shape of Water, Three Billboards, The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady
Bird; holy crap the only films this category is missing for me to p**s my
pants with excitement is Phantom Thread and the completely snubbed Mother!
(which was incredible! Incredible I say!). Guess I’ll have to choose a winner
though – Lady Bird probably but don’t quote me on it.
|
|||
 | |
| What, Oscar doesn't like overbearing metaphor? |
The F**k if I Know?!
Best Sound
Editing
Who Will Win:
Dunkirk
|
Who Should Win:
Baby Driver
|
Possible Spoiler:
Maybe Shape of Water
|
Historical Accuracy:
40%
|
Explanation: I dunno, on the one hand, I strongly feel Baby Driver
should walk away with something but on the other hand, the sound editing of
Dunkirk alone was enough to give me indigestion. Should that count for
something; maybe?
|
|||
Best Sound
Mixing
Who Will Win:
Dunkirk
|
Who Should Win:
Baby Driver
|
Possible Spoiler:
Maybe Shape of Water
|
Historical Accuracy:
60%
|
Explanation: Same logic applies here if for no other reason than my
ability to judge the difference between Sound Mixing and Sound Editing is
like asking me to judge the difference between two green paint splotches. Not
to s**t on the hard working people who are honored by this award every year but
can we please shift them to the Technical Oscars and replace the Sound Awards
with Best Stunts and Best Assistant Director?
|
|||
Best
Documentary Short
Who Will Win:
Edith + Eddie
|
Who Should Win:
Not a clue
|
Possible Spoiler:
Heroin(e)
|
Historical Accuracy:
0%
|
Explanation: Okay – I have not seen any film in this category (as per
usual). I chose Edith + Eddie based on the synopsis: the retelling of the
life of a bi-racial couple now in their 80’s. It’s timely, breaching the
difficult subject of racism in a positive manner. So yeah, that’s my
measurement stick this time around.
|
|||
Best Live
Action Short
Who Will Win:
The Silent Child
|
Who Should Win:
Dunno
|
Possible Spoiler:
Literally the whole field
|
Historical Accuracy:
0%
|
Explanation: You’re really on your own with this one. Your guess is as good as mine.
|
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