2018 Oscar Predictions

Another year, another obligatory Oscar prediction list from yours truly. Last year I like to say I was right over 50% of the time though I got Best Picture wrong for the second year in a row. Which was embarrassing but I was nowhere near as embarrassed as Warren Beatty should have been.

 In fairness, last year’s crop of Award nominees was pretty uniformly outstanding. La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Hell or High Water, Arrival and eventual winner Moonlight all exemplified what I believe to be the amount of excellence needed to break my personal Top 25 of the year. Hacksaw Ridge, Fences, and Hidden Figures less so but at least I can see where the Academy was coming from. Lion…well no, just no.

This year I feel has the opposite problem. The crop this year is pretty uniformly good, not great. Only Get Out, The Shape of Water and Phantom Thread really do it for me. Lady Bird, Dunkirk, Call Me By Your Name and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri fill out that second tier while The Post and Darkest Hour occupy my mind as the least deserving of the bunch (what no room for Florida Project, Mudbound, Mother!, Stronger or f**king I, Tonya in the Best Pic category?!).

I haven't been this upset since The Help was nominated!

Okay I’ve griped long enough. This year I have once again updated the format so forgive me if you have to jump around a little if you want to use my predictions for your Oscar Ballot (hi Kelly!). My personal historical accuracy is still in the mix but now I’m divvying my picks up best on confidence level. So here we go:

Super Confident Predictions

Best Cinematography

Who Will Win: Blade Runner 2049	Who Should Win: Roger Deakins but we really should give Rachel Morrison another look	Possible Spoiler: None	Historical Accuracy: 100%
Explanation: Literally every year Roger Deakins has been nominated for this award he’s been beaten by some pretty stiff competition (with the exception of ’95, who the hell voted for Legends of the Fall). This year however will almost certainly be the year the 13-time nominee takes home the Oscar. I mean did you see Blade Runner 2049…well judging by the box office you didn’t but still…he’s going to win, you can bring that prediction to the bank.

Best Animated Feature

Who Will Win: Coco	Who Should Win: Psshh Coco	Possible Spoiler: None	Historical Accuracy: 40%
Explanation: I mean, is this one really up for debate? The only possible spoiler would be Loving Vincent which was much better in concept than it ended up being in execution. Nope, it’s Coco.

Best Actor

Who Will Win: Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour	Who Should Win: Jake Gylenhaal – Stronger (yes I know it wasn’t nominated!)	Possible Spoiler: Hahahahaha!	Historical Accuracy: 100%
Explanation: Ugh, I’m upset this one is pretty much in the bag. Don’t get me wrong Gary Oldman did a wondrous job as Winston Churchill but the film itself is about as interesting as a damp cigar left in an ashtray. As far as the nominees are concerned Daniel Day-Lewis is crazy good in Phantom Thread but for the love of God, did no one even notice Jake Gyllenhaal’s performance in Stronger? No one?

Best Director

Who Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape of Water	Who Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread	Possible Spoiler: Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk	Historical Accuracy: 100%
Explanation: Oscar night is going to be a big night for The Shape of Water and an especially big night for its director Guillermo Del Toro. While I’m not as confident the fishy love story is going to win top prize, I am more confident Del Toro’s technical wizardry is going to get the kudos it deserves. Honestly his only real threat is Christopher Nolan who has been ignored by the Academy long enough to get some fervent industry fans chomping at the bit.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Who Will Win: James Ivory – Call Me By Your Name	Who Should Win: James Mangold, Scott Frank & Michael Green - Logan	Possible Spoiler: Aaron Sorkin – Molly’s Game	Historical Accuracy: 80%
Explanation: Call Me By Your Name has some crazy loyal fans in the film industry. And while I’m sure it’s not going to win the top prize, I do think it will win the usual consolation prize i.e. the Best Screenplay award. Longtime scribe and sometime director James Ivory really only has Aaron Sorkin to worry about but if you ask me, James Mangold and crew deserve some recognition for turning an aged X-Men staple into a bona fide western hero.

Best Actress

Who Will Win: Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	Who Should Win: Margot Robbie – I, Tonya	Possible Spoiler: Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird	Historical Accuracy: 100%
Explanation: As far as quality is concerned, every actress nominated deserves the amount of praise and attention they’ve been given. This year was especially strong for female roles. But if I were to base my prediction solely on previous award season wins and buzz, one clear winner emerges. Frances McDormand will likely take the top prize with Saoirse Ronan being the only real competition she has. Since Ronan was in a comedy however, she’s severely handicapped. Also you got to admit Hailee Steinfeld did the Lady Bird archetype better in last year’s Edge of Seventeen.

Best Supporting Actress

Who Will Win: Allison Janney – I, Tonya	Who Should Win: Allison Janney – I, Tonya	Possible Spoiler: Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird	Historical Accuracy: 80%
Explanation: This category is essentially a two woman race between two actresses both playing battleaxe mothers. But while Laurie Metcalf brought quite a bit more of humanity to her role, Janney proved she was willing to bring the fireworks as the completely rotten LaVona Golden, mother of the infamous Tonya Harding.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Who Will Win: Darkest Hour	Who Should Win: Literally anyone else	Possible Spoiler: Possibly None	Historical Accuracy: 20%
Explanation: Darkest Hour looks like the only shoe-in in this category but who knows I've been wrong before. Just ask me about Academy Award winner Suicide Squad.

Ugh, f**k you Suicide Squad!

The Not Too Sures

Best Animated Short

Who Will Win: LOU	Who Should Win: Olaf’s Frozen Ad…just kidding! LOU	Possible Spoiler: Dear Basketball	Historical Accuracy: 60%
Explanation: Out of all the shorts in this category, LOU is the most well known (it came before Cars 3), and arguably feels the safest and broadest. Plus with a big company like Pixar behind it, it seems very unlikely that anything will steal its thunder. So why is this not higher on the for-sure list? Well Dear Basketball, a short based on Kobe Bryant’s retirement letter may appeal based on its timeliness. Plus there are probably a lot of Lakers fans in the Academy voting pool. Just saying.

Best Costume Design

Who Will Win: Phantom Thread	Who Should Win: Phantom Thread	Possible Spoiler: The Shape of Water	Historical Accuracy: 40%
Explanation: With so much emphasis and importance put on clothing in Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest deep dive into obsession, it’d be easy to see Phantom Thread take this particular prize come Oscar night. That said The Shape of Water may prove stiff competition. Especially if it gets momentum early on in the night.

Best Foreign Film

Who Will Win: A Fantastic Woman	Who Should Win: A Fantastic Woman	Possible Spoiler: The Square	Historical Accuracy: 80%
Explanation: While the Academy tends to veer towards middle-of-the-road fair in every other category, interesting, experimental and radically humane films get a little more attention in the Best Foreign Language category. Thus A Fantastic Woman, the Chilean story of a trans-woman who grieves for the death of her boyfriend, may just be the ticket this time around. But don’t count out The Square the radical Palme d’Or winner that had audiences uncomfortable all the way through.

Best Original Song

Who Will Win: Remember Me – Coco	Who Should Win: Remember Me - Coco	Possible Spoiler: This is Me – The Greatest Showman	Historical Accuracy: 60%
Explanation: Coco’s “Remember Me” is the odds on favorite this time around but it was also the odds on favorite at the Golden Globes. And we all know what ended up happening there. Oh you don’t? I keep forgetting other people have lives – “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman won. Yeah, watch out for that.

Best Picture

Who Will Win: The Shape of Water	Who Should Win: Get Out	Possible Spoiler: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	Historical Accuracy: 40%
Explanation: Oof, this category is actually pretty hard to gage. On the one hand The Shape of Water is the odds on favorite but on the other hand, Three Billboards and Lady Bird pose enough of a threat to have Academy watchers nervous. Add to that the fervent fans of Call Me By Your Name and Get Out and you got enough of a spoiler factor for a fairly competitive race. I’m going to stick with The Shape of Water though partially based on Guillermo Del Toro's recent Directors Guild win.

Best Supporting Actor

Who Will Win: Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	Who Should Win: Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project	Possible Spoiler: Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project	Historical Accuracy: 80%
Explanation: Again, here’s an acting category that is essentially a two-way race. This time it’s between an angry, ineffectual, racist cop played by Sam Rockwell and a kind but jaded manager of a motel played with humanity by Willem Dafoe. Rockwell’s got momentum on his side for now but we still have the Screen Actors Guild Awards to contend with.

Best Documentary

Who Will Win: Faces Places	Who Should Win: Abacus: Small Enough to Jail	Possible Spoiler: Icarus	Historical Accuracy: 40%
Explanation: Again, this category comes down to which movie is most widely known and seen. Based on that factor alone Face Places may come away with the top prize. The film is further helped by the fact that it’s co-directed by French New Wave icon Agnes Varda. Academy film-o-philes may just use this opportunity to honor the Nouvelle Vogue in summa.

Best Visual Effects

Who Will Win: War for the Planet of the Apes	Who Should Win: Blade Runner 2049	Possible Spoiler: Blade Runner 2049	Historical Accuracy: 80%
Explanation: The robust conversations concerning Andy Serkis acting as the CGI Caesar the ape for three movies, will likely translate to a victory of the trilogy in this category. That said, the Apes series has never won in this category losing out to Interstellar and Hugo before that. History may repeat itself with the visually stunning Blade Runner 2049 slipping just past WFTPOTA for award glory.

Best Original Score

Who Will Win: Alexandre Desplat – The Shape of Water	Who Should Win: Alexandre Desplat	Possible Spoiler: Jonny Greenwood – Phantom Thread	Historical Accuracy: 40%
Explanation: Headed into award season Hans Zimmer’s experimental score for Dunkirk was said to be the odds on favorite. Apparently people briefly forgot who actually votes in these things thus Alexandre Desplat won by an upset at the Golden Globes. Will history repeat itself and give his sweet, romantic score the praise it deserves? Probably, but Jonny Greenwood (previously ineligible for The Master and There Will Be Blood, two excellent scores) has just enough fans in the industry to maybe pull an upset.

Best Production Design

Who Will Win: Blade Runner 2049	Who Should Win: Anything but Darkest Hour	Possible Spoiler: Shape of Water	Historical Accuracy: 100%
Explanation: The reason why Best Production Design is arguably my favorite award is because it’s often the most diverse. Here genre films, adult dramas and period films all collide and duke it out. This year in Design we have an ambitious, futuristic sci-fi epic (Blade Runner 2049), a harrowing war drama (Dunkirk), a romantic, retro-chic Gothic horror (The Shape of Water) and a fantasy fable dipped in the 17th century French aesthetic tradition (Beauty and the Beast). Also Darkest Hour but f**k Darkest Hour. This may prove another win for Blade Runner but again if momentum is on the side of Shape of Water, Best Production Design may just prove another feather in its cap.

Best Editing

Who Will Win: The Shape of Water	Who Should Win: Baby Driver	Possible Spoiler: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	Historical Accuracy: 0%
Explanation: I want Baby Driver to win this so bad! Yes, yes I’m aware of the criticism that Academy members often vote for “the most” or “most showy” instead of what’s “best” but when it comes to showiness Baby Driver just made it look like so much fun. Ugh, The Shape of Water will probably win because momentum blah, blah, blah.

Best Original Screenplay

 

Who Will Win: Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird	Who Should Win: Jordan Peele – Get Out	Possible Spoiler: Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	Historical Accuracy: 60%
Explanation: Ah yes, we’ve come to the Award that has all the strongest overall movies all housed under one roof. Thus based on my personal preferences (i.e. without analysis) this category is nearly impossible to pick. I mean The Shape of Water, Three Billboards, The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady Bird; holy crap the only films this category is missing for me to p**s my pants with excitement is Phantom Thread and the completely snubbed Mother! (which was incredible! Incredible I say!). Guess I’ll have to choose a winner though – Lady Bird probably but don’t quote me on it.

What, Oscar doesn't like overbearing metaphor?

The F**k if I Know?!

Best Sound Editing

Who Will Win: Dunkirk	Who Should Win: Baby Driver	Possible Spoiler: Maybe Shape of Water	Historical Accuracy: 40%
Explanation: I dunno, on the one hand, I strongly feel Baby Driver should walk away with something but on the other hand, the sound editing of Dunkirk alone was enough to give me indigestion. Should that count for something; maybe?

Best Sound Mixing

Who Will Win: Dunkirk	Who Should Win: Baby Driver	Possible Spoiler: Maybe Shape of Water	Historical Accuracy: 60%
Explanation: Same logic applies here if for no other reason than my ability to judge the difference between Sound Mixing and Sound Editing is like asking me to judge the difference between two green paint splotches. Not to s**t on the hard working people who are honored by this award every year but can we please shift them to the Technical Oscars and replace the Sound Awards with Best Stunts and Best Assistant Director?

Best Documentary Short

Who Will Win: Edith + Eddie	Who Should Win: Not a clue	Possible Spoiler: Heroin(e)	Historical Accuracy: 0%
Explanation: Okay – I have not seen any film in this category (as per usual). I chose Edith + Eddie based on the synopsis: the retelling of the life of a bi-racial couple now in their 80’s. It’s timely, breaching the difficult subject of racism in a positive manner. So yeah, that’s my measurement stick this time around.

Best Live Action Short

Who Will Win: The Silent Child	Who Should Win: Dunno	Possible Spoiler: Literally the whole field	Historical Accuracy: 0%
Explanation: You’re really on your own with this one. Your guess is as good as mine.