Another year, another award ceremony, yet another chance to enter another undeserved movie into the pantheon of Best Picture winners. Years past I have predicted with my heart and have been rebuffed by the realities of Hollywood. We know all the famous miscarriages of Oscar night glory; Art Carney winning Best Actor for
Harry and Tonto (1974) over Al Pacino for
The Godfather Part II (1974) and Jack Nicholson for
Chinatown (1974);
Forrest Gump (1994) winning over
The Shawshank Redemption (1994) and
Pulp Fiction (1994);
Crash (2004) winning
anything!
|
Pictured: Oscar winner with no social relevance to anyone
but Hollywood |
I've grown blunt in predicting the horse race. I now take into consideration that the average age of an Academy voter is 63, that the majority are white men and that they overwhelmingly love movies that portray their worldview as a net positive. Why even nominate
Do the Right Thing (1989) when
Driving Miss Daisy (1989) is a much more friendly approach to casual racism? Ever wonder how
Argo (2012) could have won Best Picture over
Life of Pi (2012),
Lincoln (2012) or
Beasts of the Southern Wild (2012) (my personal favorite)? Hmm, a positive portrayal of the American film industry loosely based on true events; how could it not have won? Thus, before you are a list of the likely winners based on my tireless research (i.e. an hour worth of Google searches). There are to me however two winners; the nominee that will win, and the nominee that should win.
First let us concentrate on the short award categories; Best Documentary Short, Live Action Short and Animated Short. Don't discount these on your Oscar ballot come Sunday; they're on the whole, the least predictable categories largely because most Academy voters don't see all of the nominees. Exposure is key here:
Best Animated Short:
This one is the most obvious; t
he winner will be: Sanjay's Super Team. It was presented at the beginning of
The Good Dinosaur which while not nominated, is backed by Pixar and Disney. In case you were wondering,
Lava which was presented before
Inside Out was not nominated (for some reason).
Who deserves to win: World of Tomorrow created by legendary animator Don Hertzfeldt. Despite being one of the most prolific animators since the 90's, and being a Sundance staple, Hertzfeldt has only been nominated once before for
Rejected (2000).
Best Documentary Short:
The great thing about this category is Short Subject Documentaries are by nature investigative. Instead of giving you the simple, glossed over, Hollywood treatment they actually delve into unsavory subjects that most movies dare not go. This year we have shorts about Ebola, the medical effects of Agent Orange, honor killings, racism and the holocaust. At the risk of sounding flippant when it comes to Short Subject Documentaries, the Holocaust always win thus
the winner will be: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of Shoah.
Who deserve to win: Last Day of Freedom which discusses racism and mental illness while simultaneously playing with the film form.
Best Live-Action Short:
I'm torn on this one. On the one hand
Ave Maria, the story about Israeli settlers asking nuns for help when their car breaks down seems like a sure-fire winner. Yet based on Festival winnings
Shok, the story of two boys struggling through the war in Kosovo is the heavy favorite.
The winner will be: Shok, it just has better name recognition.
Who deserves to win: Day One, the tale of a female interpreter working for the U.S. Army who has to deliver a baby for an enemy's wife.
Now we have the lesser technical awards. These are the ones where the presenters take longer to explain the award than the recipients do when making their speeches. Sometimes these awards are peppered in throughout the ceremony and give an indication on which movies have momentum on their side. In the case of Visual Effects it's usually an excuse to give a mindless blockbuster some recognition. These categories include Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup, and Visual Effects.
Best Sound Editing:
Despite being released in May,
Mad Max: Fury Road has been on many people's minds. The fact that it was nominated for Best Picture despite it being essentially one big car chase is enough for gear heads to celebrate. Still I truly believe
the winner will be: The Revenant who will be using this award category as momentum towards the bigger technical awards and eventual big prize. That said,
Mad Max: Fury Road deserves to win.
Best Sound Mixing:
You would think that whomever wins Best Sound Editing would win Best Sound Mixing; yet 4 of the last 10 years have had the winners of these two awards split. This will undoubtedly be the case this year since
Mad Max: Fury Road and
The Revenant are too close to call. That means this award will be won by which ever movie has (gasp) the superior sound mixing. To that end,
Mad Max: Fury Road will be the winner and
deserves to win.
Best Production Design:
This category is all over the map!
Mad Max and
The Revenant are up there but so are
The Danish Girl,
The Martian and
Bridge of Spies, a whole mess of movies that couldn't be more diverse. Smart money is once again on
Mad Max: Fury Road which
will probably win. Does it
deserve to win? Yeah, I think so.
Best Costume Design:
The winner will be Mad Max: Fury Road. I might as well tell you now I have
Mad Max down for winning the lions share of the awards. Though in the case of costuming I don't think it's deserved.
Most deserving of a win in this category:
The Danish Girl which wasn't the most entertaining movie but nonetheless provided period appropriate costuming which along with the production design made the film a serviceable flick.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Despite having only three nominees, this category has always been colorful. It always seems to feature two heavy Best Picture favorites then fills the third slot with a movie that doesn't stand a snowball chance in hell. Ever wonder how movies like
Norbit (2007),
Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me (1999) and
Bad Grandpa (2013) get nominated for an Academy Award? Look no further than Best Makeup. This year the Hail Mary slot goes to the impossibly titled
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared. Yet
the winner and the movie
most deserving the win will ultimately be
Mad Max: Fury Road.
Best Visual Effects:
Mad Max: Fury Road! Shhh, don't struggle, don't fight it, just witness.
Now we get into the production awards we kinda care about. The ones that don't need explanation but don't feature pretty people taking home a statuette. They're also the categories where
Mad Max turns into a pumpkin. The awards are: Original Score, Original Song, Documentary, Animated Film, Foreign Language Film, Film Editing and Cinematography.
Best Original Score:
We have some heavy-hitters in this category. Thomas Newman who scored
Bridge of Spies has been nominated 12 times. John "I provided the soundtrack to your childhood" Williams has been nominated a whopping 42 times and won 5! Then there's the legendary Ennio Morricone who has never won despite providing the soundtrack to your father's childhood. Morricone's work in
The Hateful Eight is one of the few sure things this Sunday; he
will be the winner. He's also is
most deserving of the win even though his work on
The Hateful Eight isn't as iconic as
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (1966) and
Once Upon a Time in America (1984).
Best Original Song:
This category has been fun to watch over the last few years. Look back far enough and there seems to be competing patterns. Recently it's a tug-o-war between catchy tunes featured in animated movies and documentaries with showstopping anthems. For the first time ever there are two of the latter and none of the former. What's even more interesting is the Docs nominated for Best Song;
Racing Extinction and
The Hunting Ground aren't even nominated for Best Documentary. We live in a crazy world.
The winner will be:
The Hunting Ground's song "Til it Happens to You" a powerful ballad dedicated to rape victims. It will provide Lady Gaga yet another award but in this case I really do thing
she deserves to win; sorry
Fifty Shade of Grey.
Best Documentary:
Speaking of Documentaries, we have a very strong crop this year and it's encouraging to see that the entire genre has become so popular in recent years. In this case it's probably better to eliminate those that won't win.
Winter on Fire is out; Academy voters don't like political movies period.
The Look of Silence is a novel and exciting continuation of
The Act of Killing (2012) (which should have won Best Doc in 2013). Sadly history repeats itself.
Cartel Land is a hard-hitting social problem film that is quite frankly too depressing for Academy voters. This leaves
What Happened, Miss Simone? and
Amy; both about influential musicians Nina Simone and Amy Winehouse respectively.
The winner will be Amy largely due to it's first run popularity. The movie that
deserves to win however is
The Look of Silence.
Best Animated Feature:
Another for sure thing this award season is
Inside Out. I would be very surprised if it isn't
the eventual winner. The
film most deserving the win is definitely
The Boy & the World which was one of the most fascinating animated films I have seen this decade.
Best Foreign Language Film:
Son of Saul will be the winner. It simply has too much going for it; positive word-of-mouth, it takes bold cinematic risks which, unlike Best Picture is actually encouraged in this category. Plus its story takes place during the Holocaust. Does it deserve to win however? Well
Mustang comes with similar positive buzz and it features timely messages about living in a more pluralistic society. I'm going to indulge myself and say
Mustang deserves the win.
Best Film Editing:
Here is where
Mad Max is going to falter a bit. Yes it's nominated and yes it's the odd-on favorite though not by much.
The Big Short will be the winner in this category on the strength of more American-centric themes, bigger names and previous work by editor Hank Corwin.
Most deserving of the win, in my humble opinion is actually dark-horse nominee Tom McArdle for
Spotlight. Nowhere is there a more tactile building of evidence and execution of themes than in
Spotlight and the editing is an underrated invisible hand that we all should celebrate.
Best Cinematography:
There is so much love for
The Revenant's cinematography that I find it hard to believe it won't win against
Mad Max,
Hateful Eight and
Carol.
The Revenant will not only
win the award but will be cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki third win in a row.
The deserved win however is Roger Deakins for
Sicario who has been nominated 13 times yet has never won. Those who have seen
Sicario can attest that the cinematography as the best thing about that movie.
Now we get to the categories we all care about. The ones that bring to mind the glamour and prestige that comes with watching the Oscars. These categories are not only ones we easily recognize and look forward to watching but they are most susceptible to bias. They're not just acting awards, they're lifetime achievement awards. One can't help but think that if Roger Deakins was an actor, he would have gotten his golden statue years ago. The awards are as follows: Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Supporting Actor and Actress, Best Actor and Actress, Best Director and of course, Best Picture.
Best Original Screenplay:
The media is predicting this category to be a two movie race between
Inside Out and
Spotlight. Both provide some excellent writing and while
Inside Out can be commended for its originality
the winner will be: Spotlight. Early on it was the odds-on favorite to win Best Picture but so much steam has been taken out of its campaign as of late that it may just win Original Screenplay as a consolation prize. In my experience, the category of Original Screenplay has always featured
the best film of the year. No it won't win but I think
the most deserving film is
Ex Machina; one of the most underrated films of the decade.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Let's face it, the nomination process for this category was very cluttered. With the amount of biographies and movies based on novels and comic-books, I truly think they should expand this category to 10. No
The Revenant wasn't nominated nor was
Trumbo,
Lady in the Van or
Creed but
Carol was! Okay let's get to it;
the winner will be: The Big Short because of course it will!
Most deserving to win however is
The Martian which made physics, chemistry and botany actually exciting.
Best Supporting Actor:
It basically comes down to Sylvester Stallone and Mark Rylance for
Creed and
Bridge of Spies respectively. As I said before, the acting awards are part-lifetime achievement award thus Sly
will win and finally take home the prize for playing the same damn character he's played since the start of his career.
Most deserving of the prize for, you know, actually acting is hands down Tom Hardy for
The Revenant who did most of the crap Leo did sans slipping into a moose carcass.
Best Supporting Actress:
This horse race is the tightest out of all the categories. It literally is a coin-toss between Alicia Vikander for
The Danish Girl and Kate Winslet for
Steve Jobs. Yet there's enough support for both to split the vote allowing Rooney Mara from
Carol to spoil and spoil hard. Despite this risk, I'm going to have to predict Vikander as
the ultimate winner. It comes down to her recent Screen Actors Guild Award and Critics' Choice Award. That and the fact that unlike
Steve Jobs which is considered a lesser Aaron Sorkin film,
The Danish Girl is a landmark film (for better or worse).
Most deserving of the win however is...Alicia Vikander for
Ex Machina. Yes I know she's not nominated for that movie but dammit she should be!
Best Actress:
Brie Larson is a forgone conclusion. She
deserves to win for
Room and she
will win for
Room. I defy the Academy to prove me wrong.
Best Actor:
Doesn't it seem like the further down we get, the more certain it becomes? It really is Leo's to lose this year and despite some minor ankle biting by Eddie Redmayne for
The Danish Girl and Michael Fassbender for
Steve Jobs I really don't see DiCaprio losing out to either. Leo DiCaprio in
Revenant for the win! Deserved win: Channing Tatum for
Jupiter Ascending; he made it through the movie without laughing, that to me is an accomplishment.
Best Director:
In the directing category, George Miller of
Mad Max fame is proving a real threat to Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu who won last year for
Birdman (2014) and hopes to repeat history with
The Revenant. Back to back wins aren't entirely out of the realm of possibility. Joseph L. Mankiewicz won Best Director for
A Letter to Three Wives (1949) and
All About Eve (1950) though that was over fifty years ago. Despite believing that
the deserved win should go to 70-year-old veteran George Miller
the winner will ultimately be: Inarritu for
The Revenant.
Best Picture:
Finally the largest and arguably the most important award of the night; Best Picture. There are eight nominees all of which are very good, high-quality films that are sure to entertain anyone who watches them. They are:
The Revenant,
Mad Max: Fury Road,
Room,
Spotlight,
Brooklyn,
The Martian,
Bridge of Spies and
The Big Short. Taken out of the running right away are
Brooklyn and
Bridge of Spies which, while decent films don't have that many exemplary things going for them.
The Big Short and
The Martian are excellent films sure to be popular long past this year's hoopla.
My heart ultimately is with The Big Short though we all know that the Academy has bias towards comedies. There's a double handicap for
The Martian which is also a science fiction film. This leaves
The Revenant,
Mad Max: Fury Road and
Spotlight.
Mad Max has a lot of things going against it. It's a sci-fi action epic, it's a sequel, it's not an American production and it's a blockbuster. None of these things would be enough to handicap a movie during any given year but all these factors together all but eliminate
Mad Max.
Spotlight was an early favorite and its narrative; The Boston Globe's take-down of sexual abuse in the Catholic Church, was enough to give its brand a moral edge. Despite this however,
The Revenant has surged into the lead thanks in part to good marketing, a certain actors inevitable, long awaited triumph and said actor's speech at the Golden Globes where Leo masterfully branded the film a movie that treats Native Americans with respect.
Spotlight suddenly lost its underdog Cinderella story narrative and became "that newspaper movie" seemingly overnight.
The eventual winner will be: The Revenant.