Shorts
Yes, the shorts; or as some might
call them, the Oscar ballot wildcards. These suckers can be a pain because
chances are you haven't seen most of them and reading up on them doesn't quite
capture their appeal, let alone their chances.
One of the good things about the
short awards is they give controversial topics the air time they deserve while
giving new filmmakers a chance to shine. Thus, the Live-Action Short Award may
just end up going to Ennemis Interieurs the only film in this category
that explores themes like immigration and terrorism. Of course given the fact
that I have been wrong in this category 100% of the time, may I suggest you go
to someone else if you plan to bet on this specific category.
Winner
Ennemis Interieurs
Who Should Win
The f*** if I know!
Out of all the Short categories, I
have been the most right about Animated shorts (basically 50/50). I’m pretty
confident it's going to be Piper.
It's probably the only Animated Short you actually saw this year (it played
before Finding Dory). It's adorable, it’s
awesome, and it deserves to win.
Winner
Piper
Who Should Win
Piper
As I said before, Short Films give
controversial topics the attention they deserve; which is probably why three of
the five movies in the Documentary Short category are about Syria. My guess is, 4.1 Miles, Watani and The White Helmets
are going to split the ticket leaving Extremis;
a movie about end of life care, and Joe's
Violin; a movie about a Holocaust survivor. Not to sound callus but if
there's one thing I learned about these subjects over the last few
years...always bet on the Holocaust.
Winner
Joe's Violin
Who Should Win
The White Helmets
Music
Best Music 25%
We love rhythm, we love music, we
love...La La Land. Could you ask for anything more?
La La Land
Who Deserves to Win
La La Land
"But, but Moana," I hear you cry. Sorry guys we've got a universally
adored, delightfully light musical with original music that constantly
references old Hollywood. There's no way La La Land is not going to
sweep this year's Oscars. The question here is, is it going to be the
heart-wrenching "Audition" song, or the lackadaisical "City of
Stars". I think I'm just going to split the difference.
The Winner
La La Land "City of
Stars"
Who Should Win
La La Land "Audition (The
Fools Who Dream)"
The
Pretty Awards
Once again it looks like this
category is going to be an easy sweep for La
La Land. Linus Sandgren's flawless ability to turn cynical Hollywood
parties into romantic visions and turn gridlock traffic into a sonorous joy
will easily defeat any of the noobs on this list (excluding Rodrigo Prieto of
course). That said, if anyone deserves an award for doing the most with less,
it's James Laxton for Moonlight. The
man doesn't just make romantic frames; he carves forlorn, tragic and hauntingly
beautiful ones too.
Winner
Linus Sandgren for La La Land
Who Should Win
James Laxton for Moonlight
Production Design 50%
La
La Land going up against Passengers?
Surely you jest! No, La La Land is
going to take this one too.
La La Land
Who Should Win
La La Land
Ah yes, the Visual Effect Oscar;
put in the fray to nominate movies audiences actually did see just so producers
can put "Winner of an Oscar" on the Blu-Ray box. While my heart goes
out to Kubo and the Two Strings on
this one, the winner will ultimately be The
Jungle Book, by virtue of 90% of the film being CGI yet audiences didn't really
notice or care.
Winner
The Jungle Book
Who Should Win
Kubo and the Two Strings
This category may just end up
reeling in a second makeup Oscar for the drifting Star Trek movie franchise which got its start all the way back in
1980. If anyone is going to spoil Star
Trek Beyond's chances, it certainly won't be Suicide Squad - A Man Called
Ove maybe, but not Suicide Squad.
Winner
Star Trek Beyond
Who Should Win
Star Trek Beyond
Costume Design 50%
Undoubtedly, La La Land is
the standout here. While all the other films are more or less, period pieces, La La Land sticks out for being
contemporary in both narrative story and costume design. Sure there are some
flourishes of 60's twee but if anything it just sells the hipster-ism of the
characters.
Winner
La La Land
Who Should Win
Jackie...because La La Land really
shouldn't have it all!
All
Hail the Writers
And now we come to the Original
Screenplay Oscar, aka the award category that usually has the best selection of
films. And boy what an eclectic collection; there's the neo-western Hell or High Water, the painfully real Manchester by the Sea, the nostalgic 20th Century Women, the bizarre The Lobster and of course there's La La Land. Guess where the Academy
voters are going to go on this one!
Winner
La La Land
Who Should Win
Hell or High Water
Of course La La Land can't win everything. The good thing about the writing
awards is if a heavy favorite for Best Picture is in one category, it won't be
in the other. Luckily in this category we have La La Land's only possible spoiler for the biggest award of the
night - Moonlight!
Winner
Moonlight
Who Should Win
Moonlight
Specialty
Films
This category is proving rather
interesting. On the one hand we have Moana
which does everything right as far as being a colorful, fun and traditional
Disney Princess movie. On the other hand we got Zootopia which, while being the better, more socially conscious
film does have the handicap of being released way back in May. There's also the
risk that both Disney movies splitting the votes leaving Kubo and the Two Strings just enough room to eek out Laika
Animation's first feature Oscar. By virtue of it being topical in a safe,
approachable way, I'm going to bet Zootopia
is going to walk away with the statuette come Sunday.
Winner
Zootopia
Who Should Win
Zootopia
Oh boy, this year they really went
full SJW on this category. I mean they actually nominated I Am Not Your Negro and 13th
despite their controversial subject matter. Ultimately however I think the
forces of progress and the forces of old, white, moneyed men will end up compromising
and choose O.J.: Made in America as
the perfect balance between race relations and pop-corny sensationalism.
Winner
O.J.: Made in America
Who Should Win
The Eagle Huntress, I know it's not
nominated but come on!
Toni
Erdmann proved to be the early favorite in this race but Trump's temporary
travel ban has given voting for Asghar Farhadi's The Salesman a certain liberal appeal. Farhadi has stated he will
not be present at the Oscars so I'm sure we're all anxious to see who will take
the Oscar on his behalf. Is Sacheen Littlefeather still around?
Winner
The Salesman
Who Should Win
Toni Erdmann
Other
Techs and Specs
F*$%&##$%&&*! How have
I gotten this category so wrong in the past? I mean choosing Zero Dark Thirty over Argo I get but Imitation Game over Whiplash?
Whiplash! I guess hindsight is 20/20.
Anywho, this year we have quite an array of genres from a musical (cough,
cough), a war movie, a western, an alien invasion movie and an emotional
coming-of-age tale. While once again I am partial to Moonlight, It's ultimately going to go to Tom Cross for La La Land who previously won with
Damien Chazelle's Whiplash in 2014.
 |
| Whiplash!!!!!! |
Winner
La La Land
Who Should Win
Moonlight
There's actually a big difference
between sound mixing and sound editing...if you tell me what it is you'll get a
cookie. In the meantime, this category may just be where La La Land takes a tumble. I'm going to give this one to Hacksaw Ridge.
Winner
Hacksaw Ridge
Who Should Win
La La Land
But of course La La Land will recover because, why the hell not!
Winner
La La Land
Who Should Win
Hacksaw Ridge
Directors and Actors
I’ve been on point in this category
but this year is going to be a rather tough one for me. Not as far as
predicting, it's going to be La La Land
again, I'm just trying to think whom I personally like more. Mel Gibson proved
that he's got a lot left in that old, grizzled, racist gas tank of his, while
Denis Villeneuve has entered my heart this year as one of my all-time
contemporary favorites. I haven't seen much from Kenneth Lonergan but if any of
his other films are anything like Manchester
by the Sea, he clearly has an unsurpassed ability to read humans. Finally
there's Barry Jenkins which, holy crap what an amazing first film.
Winner
Damien Chazelle for La La Land
Should Win
Barry Jenkins for Moonlight
Quick question, why is Dev Patel in
the Supporting Actor category? Lion
is "about" him! Also where the hell is Aaron Taylor-Johnson? Ugh,
this category is a mess...but at least we can be reasonably certain Mahershala
Ali is taking home the gold.
Winner
Mahershala Ali for Moonlight
Who Should Win
Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal
Animals
It's clear this is Viola
Davis's year. I mean she's basically the lead in Fences, yet they fit her comfortably in the Supporting Actress
category to give her the edge over Michelle Williams and Naomie Davis.
Winner
Viola Davis for Fences
Who Should Win
Viola Davis for Fences but in the
Best Actress category you mooks!
This year's Best Actress
nominations may just be one of the most competitive on record. All five women
not only did stupendous work this year but their roles are so vastly different
from one another. My guess is, the Academy voters are going to be evenly split
over Natalie Portman's all-too-real take on Jackie O. and Isabelle Huppert's
complex portrayal of a professional woman who refuses to be defined by her
rape. As a result, Emma Stone is going to squeak through on a wave of La La
love.
Winner
Emma Stone
Who Should Win
Isabelle Huppert (I mean, have you
seen Elle?!)
The Best Actor category is a little
easier to suss out with the heavy favorite being Casey Affleck for Manchester
by the Sea. Still there's risk of an upset by Denzel Washington, partially
because his portrayal in Fences is incredible but also because of
Affleck has been accused of sexual harassment while on the set of I'm Still
Here 2010. Still, Affleck's subtle turn in Manchester will likely be
stamped by the Academy's seal of approval.
Winner
Casey Affleck
Who Should Win
Denzel Washington
I mean, this category is about as
certain as fireworks on the Fourth of July. The only possible spoiler that may
approach overtaking La La Land might
be Moonlight. Industry organizers are
trying to pit this as a David versus Goliath-type scenario just like last year’s
big, bloated The Revenant versus the
scrappy Spotlight. Yet Revenant’s fatal
flaw was its expensive, mismanaged production which harpooned its chances among
the Academy’s money-men. Here we just have two very, very, very good films that
were done well and made with reasonable expectations...one's just bigger.
Winner
La La Land
Who Should Win
La La Land
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