Thoughts From the Usher Podium: The Academy Awards

Since the Academy Awards Ceremony coming to a cable box near you this weekend and the internet is abuzz and over-saturated with speculation and horseracing, I figured now would be a good time to talk seriously about Oscar ballots. Why would I degrade the level of sophistication and levity that theyservepopcorninhell brings to the internet you ask? Why would I be apart of Hollywood’s largest unnecessary self-congratulatory soiree? Is it out of genuine interest, masochism, the idealistic fervor of wanting to apart of the magic while secretly hoping, so whole-heartedly to be a part of the debauched post-ceremony orgy at the Weinsteins…?

 

Mostly I just heard the Sangria is awesome.

Anyway, here are my selections for the big night. First up, let’s sink our teeth on the short stuff. The piecemeal hors d’oeuvres of the Hollywood machine; in other words where the true art lies. Best Animated Short, Best Live-Action Short and Best Documentary Short Feature are pure guesses for the most part for people. It bites because getting one of these suckers wrong can mean the difference between office pool glory and runner-up to the free spa treatment for two (we take Oscar season seriously in my office).

Here are my totally random guess:

Best Live-Action Short: The Voorman Problem. Why? It was the very last title on the list of nominees.

Best Animated Short: Mr. Hublot: Phonetically similar to Mr. Hulot’s Holiday (1953) and we have a lot of Francophiles in Hollywood.

Best Documentary Short Subject: Cavedigger; about an artist who carves sculptural caves out of hand tools. Takes spelunking to a whole new level.

While we’re on the subject how about Best Documentary Feature? While I’m partial to The Square for its inspiring footage of the now three-year-old Egyptian Revolution, The Act of Killing will likely carry the day. Think about it, Indonesian death squad leaders willingly reenacting their pasts using movie genres to express their chilling crimes? Both effective and highly entertaining.

 Next there’s the Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing prizes. For fields that include the only nominations of All Is Lost, Star Trek Into Darkness and The Lone f***ing Ranger, I’m counting on Gravity to all but sweep the technical awards. In fact Best Visual Effects is also a lock for Gravity.

Speaking of locks, Frozen’s “Let It Go” will likely be added to Disney’s award winning musical repertoire joining the likes of “A Whole New World” from Aladdin (1992), “Under the Sea” from The Little Mermaid (1989) and “Beauty and the Beast” from Beauty and the Beast (1991). Will it win best animated feature though…smart money says yes but I have a soft spot for Hayao Miyazaki’s beautifully detailed, animated world. Yeah, I might regret it but I’m calling Best Animated Feature for The Wind Rises.

Best Score will likely go to Saving Mr. Banks, whose lack of nomination for Best Actress, Supporting Actor and Best Picture might get sympathy from Academy voters. The movie most likely to get begrudging support will likely be Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa for Best Makeup and Hairstyling. Everyone should now start get comfortable saying Academy Award winning Jackass movies.

Many people were surprised that Blue is the Warmest Color was knocked out of the running for Best Foreign Film. Not I; I knew it’d be too controversial for the dwindling yet still influential older voters. Now people are saying Thomas Vinterberg’s The Hunt is the odds on favorite. Again, I’m going against the grain here and selecting The Great Beauty. Voters like nostalgia over tragedy and The Great Beauty is a lesser version of Federico Fellini not the best version of Dogme 95.

American Hustle will likely pick up an award for Best Costume Design, while Gravity once again pounces on technical awards like Production Design and Cinematography. Editing will likely be taken by Joe Walker of 12 Years a Slave fame. The unflinching editing was one of the best things about the hard-edged film. That and the script which will likely pick up a Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar.

Best Original screenplay is a little up in the air at the moment. While many people are hailing American Hustle there are too many detractors to ignore. Nebraska is the fourth out of six Alexander Payne films to be nominated in the writing category and let’s not forget Woody Allen is nominated (again) for Blue Jasmine. Ultimately I think I’m going to go with Spike Jonze and Her. Screenplay awards are usually the only awards given to movies that dare to be different.

Now on to the big six: Directing, the four Acting Awards and Best Picture. Jared Leto is a lock for Best Supporting Actor for Dallas Buyers Club. Bradley Cooper? Sorry you’re not in Silver Linings Playbook (2012) anymore bucko. Supporting Actress again is a bit of a toss up. While I’m partial to Lupita Nyong’o and Jennifer Lawrence has her fans I might have to go with Julia Roberts for August: Osage County (the only one in the category I haven’t seen).

Amy Adams was easily the best thing about American Hustle but while she’s the only woman in the category of Best Actress to never win an Oscar I don’t think this is her year. Cate Blanchett has been winning awards left and right for her role in Blue Jasmine so I’m going with her for the win.

 Bruce Dern is the right nominee for sentimentalists who think it’s his time but the two whose “time has come” is really Leonardo DiCaprio and Matthew McConaughey. Both gave career bests in The Wolf of Wall Street and Dallas Buyers Club respectively and both proved once and for all they aren’t just pretty boys. Matthew McConaghey has McConned his way into my heart this year, much more so than DiCaprio and will likely give Dallas Buyers Club it’s second Academy Award of the night.

Best directing is ultimately a two way race between Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity and Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave. Both are exceptional in their own way and neither has won the coveted award before. While my heart is telling me Steve McQueen has accomplished making an unforgettable film worthy of serious contemplation and respect, my gut is telling me Cuaron will take home the golden statuette. Cuaron has McQueen beat simply by the dizzying technology necessary to make Gravity what it was.

Finally there’s the Best Picture category. Philomena had its moments and avoided Hallmark Channel simplicity but it’s not enough to overcome its geriatric vibe. The Wolf of Wall Street won’t win the trophy for the opposite reason; it skews young as to alienate elderly Academy voters. Nebraska is a good movie and I like Alexander Payne but he’s destined to be the Herbert Ross of the 21^st Century with Nebraska being yet another almost. Her is far, far, far too original and complex to win Best Picture while Captain Phillips is far too old school and simplistic to make the cut. American Hustle is loved by many but hated by a sizeable amount of people. Not exactly the quality one needs to win a popularity contest. Then there’s Dallas Buyers Club which would be a pleasant surprise if it won but won’t because of its subject matter.

The race will again come down to 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. It’s another David Vs. Goliath scenario similar to last year’s showdown between Argo (2012) and Life of Pi (2012), the year before; The Artist (2011) and Hugo (2011) and the year before that’s The Hurt Locker (2010) and Avatar (2010). Each time the movie with the larger special effects budget lost out to the little movie that could. In light of that information I’m betting on my favorite movie of 2013 12 Years a Slave to win the big door prize.

I would like to close this rumination with a brief list of movies that were not nominated for anything this year but by gosh, should have gotten some attention. Give these movies your love by renting, buying or streaming them online.

The non-nominees are:

Blue is the Warmest Color (Best Foreign Film)

Monsters University (Best Animated Feature)

Pacific Rim (Best Visual Effects and Best Set Design)

The Heat (Best Original Screenplay)

The Conjuring (Best Cinematography)

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (Best Sound Editing and Mixing)

The World’s End (Best Original Screenplay)

Fruitvale Station (Best Actor)